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Florida hurricane experts plead for more funding
08/21/2008
Miami Herald
Top hurricane scientists from Florida are leading a charge to lobby
Congress to sharply increase funding for research into predicting,
modeling and preventing damage from nature's deadliest storms.
Sitting in the cross-hairs of hurricane alley -- and fresh from
experiencing Tropical Storm Fay -- Florida stands to gain the most
from a spike in money for research through the National Hurricane
Research Initiative Act, otherwise known as House Resolution 2407.
If approved in its current form, the bill would dedicate almost
$500 million annually for hurricane research over the next decade.
There are no guarantees the bill will pass this year.
But scientists say they want at least as much federal funding
as is dedicated for earthquake research at universities, which
receive about $100 million a year.
''We need to bring hurricane research up to today's standards,''
said University of Miami researcher Shuyi Chen. ``We are still
predicting hurricane intensity and working with modeling technology
developed in the 1970s.''
Florida International University professor Stephen Leatherman,
director of the school's International Hurricane Research Center,
agrees.
''Katrina should have been a wake-up call. But some people feel
it was a one-time event that can never happen again,'' Leatherman
said. ``I'd say hurricane researchers at universities get less
than 25 percent of what universities get for earthquake research.
It's uncoordinated, it's insufficient, and unless Congress does
something about it, it's going to stay that way.''
Leatherman and other scientists understand that high national
deficits and tight budgets may align against them, but they stress
the amount of money that can be saved from increased research.
Leatherman's center recently received a highly coveted $10 million
grant from the state, which he says has recognized the hurricane
threat and has recently dedicated more money to study storms. His
center, best known for the ''Wall of Wind'' machine used to test
how products fare in hurricane winds, wants to help develop products
such as powerful adhesives that can be used to retrofit the roofs
of older homes.
In 2004, Florida sustained $42 billion in damage from hurricanes
Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, and the following year Hurricane
Wilma alone walloped South Florida and left $16 billion in damage.
Leatherman said insurance companies are willing to work with homeowners
to lower rates significantly if they would retrofit their homes
with hurricane-resistant upgrades.
In June, Leatherman, as well as scientists from the University
of Florida, the University of Miami and federal agencies, testified
before Congress to urge them to pass the bill, which would help
corral much of the research that already exists from different
government and academic entities.
And UM's Chen leads a research group that has developed a next-generation,
high-resolution hurricane modeling system to understand the intensity
of storms and improve hurricane prediction. She told Congress that
the key to success was developing a hurricane forecasting system
that includes ``detailed forecasts of extreme winds, rain, storm
surge and severe weather such as tornadoes and inland flooding.''
The proposed bill would set aside $285 million a year for overall
hurricane research, $130 million a year to create new hurricane
modeling and $20 million a year to create a national infrastructure
database that would catalog the country's infrastructure that is
vulnerable to hurricanes.
At the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County, storm
specialists agree a commitment of time and money is needed to improve
hurricane intensity forecasts.
''Our main problem is limited skill in forecasting intensity,''
said Christopher Landsea, the center's science and operations officer.
``We can identify and predict general trends -- the storm is getting
stronger or it's getting weaker -- but in terms of rapid changes
in intensity, we have to do a better job.''
Current funding levels would allow for ''modest improvements''
in the next decade, Landsea said.
'The hope is that more funding comes through, and it gets into
forecasters' hands so we can harness all the information we have
into newer, more sophisticated models,'' Landsea said.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
launched a Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project aimed at improving
the accuracy and reliability of storm forecasts.
Chen says faster, more powerful computers are needed to be able
to track intensity shifts within half-mile areas so forecasters
could identify very specific areas where the winds and rain are
the strongest. She made her feelings clear to Congress.
''It is of no doubt that improving the hurricane forecast and
response to save lives and reduce economic loss should be a national
priority,'' Chen told Congress in June. "There is no reason for
further delay or full-scale support for such development, which
is long overdue.''
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