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Definition
Forecasting
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Definition

In tropical cyclones strong winds circulate counter-clockwise around an extreme low-pressure center. When wind speed reaches 74 miles per hour, the cyclone is officially classified as a HURRICANE in the Western Hemisphere. Weaker tropical cyclones have a complicated terminology as described below.

A hurricane's spiraling wind and rain bands can extend hundreds of miles from its center. As the storm approaches land, tornadoes may form around its outer edges.

The most dangerous aspect of a hurricane is the storm surge, the large dome of water that floods the coast as the storm makes landfall. This surge is the greatest threat to life. Even if the storm strikes at low tide, the water level might reach as high as 20 feet at the shoreline. Heavy rains also cause flooding as the hurricane moves inland.

Most hurricanes start in the tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Although "hurricane season" runs from June 1st to November 30th, most hurricanes strike in August, September and October.

HURRICANE-RELATED TERMS

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms without a defined circulation.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION: An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a circular wind circulation and maximum winds less than 39 mph.

TROPICAL STORM: An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined
circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.

HURRICANE WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in 24-36 hours. You
should complete all hurricane preparations. Follow evacuation instructions from local officials. Leave immediately after an evacuation notice is issued to avoid delays.

HURRICANE WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible within 36-48 hours. You should begin preliminary preparations to protect life and property. Stay tuned to radio and TV for weather updates.

SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE

The severity of hurricanes is rated using the Saffir/Simpson scale. This scale assigns a storm to one of five categories based on its wind speed. Category one is a minimal hurricane and category five is the strongest. Using this scale helps estimate the potential property damage and expected coastal flooding from a hurricane.


Hurricane Norman south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California (NOAA Historic NWS Collection 9/2/78)


Hurricane Andrew 1992 (NOAA)

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Forecasting

Though Meteorology can never be an exact science the National Weather Service (NWS) works diligently to safeguard American's lives and property through accurate forecasts and timely warnings.

The Tropical Prediction Center (TPC), on FIU's University Park Campus is responsible for forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic and Eastern pacific Oceans. Local weather Forecast Offices, like the Miami WFO (also at FIU) tailor these forecast to local conditions in each community as well as provide forecast of day-to-day weather.

To learn more about the Forecasting process, please visit National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Preparedness website. Information includes a 6 hour forecast cycle, summarized activities of the NWS and WFO, as well as media downloads of Max Mayfield discussing forecasts and coordination.


5-day Satellite Hovmoller diagrams. Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean GOES_EAST (NWS, NOAA)

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Related Links


Hurricane Researchers


Hurricanes form in late summer and early fall when ocean waters are warmest. (Graphic by Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC)

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